Historical Rainfall Data for Years 1888 to 2020 * Rain Season runs July 1 - June 30 annually. For each year’s 21-year sample, I counted those rainfall values that were lower than 395 mm (for the Low Tail) and those higher than 909 mm (for the High Tail). By contrast, the “Tails” graph shows extremes in the most recent decade, the 1990’s, that were just as high as those in the 1950’s. Back to Extremes Part I. Bundaberg maximum temp history (24.8661°S, 152.3488°E, 18m AMSL) Hottest ever this month: 35.8° 31/10/2001: Hottest this year: 34.9° 20/02/2020: Hottest this month Find historical weather by searching for a city, zip code, or airport code. Back to Extremes Part I. The dotted red line shows the differences directly: The peak is low; What feels unbearably cold to one person for a swim might be fine for another. "Manilla 3-year climate trends" graphs and reports extend back to May 2010 as consecutive months. Annual rainfall scatter and rainfall amount were not related. Back to the prelude “Manilla’s Yearly Rainfall History”. That further reduced the years that could be plotted to those from 1897 to 2002. The graph relies on the long-term Normal Distribution curve (“L-T Norm. The pattern has not yet become smooth. Manilla’s 134 years of rainfall readings yield the graph above. historical climate data web site is a gateway to information on matters such as past (hourly, daily, monthly and almanac) weather includes: temperature, snow, snow on ground, precipitation, rain, wind speed and direction, heating and cooling degree days, visibility, relative humidity, wind … That is to say, those that were more than 1.645 times the Standard Deviation (SD = 156 mm) below or above the Mean (M = 652 mm). Back to the prelude “Manilla’s Yearly Rainfall History”. These Tails are the parts that I will call “extreme”. Also, although this is not obvious, this graph assumes that other features of the distribution of annual rainfall have not been changing, which is not true. Definitely not! For each year, I have identified the highest and lowest values of annual rainfall in its 21-year sample. “This Manilla rainfall record is one counter-example to the snow-balling catalogue of reported extreme climatic events.” historical climate data web site is a gateway to information on matters such as past (hourly, daily, monthly and almanac) weather includes: temperature, snow, snow on ground, precipitation, rain, wind speed and direction, heating and cooling degree days, visibility, relative humidity, wind … To remove jumps in the trace on the graph, I then applied a nine-point Gaussian smoothing function. Throughout the month of October daytime temperatures will generally reach highs of around 27°C that's about 80°F. The resulting pattern of heavier and lighter tails, shown above, is similar to that found by using more and less extreme values, shown in the graph copied here. [Select ARCHIVES for the month following.] Forward to Extremes Part II. The chart below plots the average high and low temperature for each month of the year. For extreme annual rainfalls at Manilla, this graph suggests the following: They were more extreme than usual at the end of the 19th century and in the 1940’s. In recent years the maximum sustained wind speed has reached 54 km/h, that’s the equivalent of around 33 mph, or 29 knots. The average daily wind speed in October has been around 16 km/h, that’s the equivalent to about 10 mph, or 8 knots. There are several features to notice. They have been no more or less extreme than one should expect through all of the last five decades. In that article, I said: (For the 1990’s heavy low tail, see the Note below.). Some of the 20 mm “bins” near the middle have less than 2% of the observations, while others have over 5%. However, the titles are changed. It is due to just one data item: the annual rainfall reading of 1129 mm in the year 1890, which was the highest ever. “Present rainfall will seem low to those who remember the 1970’s, but the 1970’s were wet times and now is normal. September Climate History for Bundaberg with monthly averages for temperature, rainfall, wind. In the present case, each calculation uses a sample that includes only 21 points. Forward to Extremes Part III. All three measures agree well except at two dates: 1897 and 1980. However, by far the most reliable rainfall came since 1992, extending to … After 1951, rainfall was above average for the 44 years to 1995. The report “August 2020: warm nights and cool days” was posted on 5 September 2020. It is a transform of the normal distribution with a weighted sinusoidal correction. Inter-quartile Range measures the scatter of values that are close the middle: just the middle 50%. If you are after long-term averages relevant to Bundaberg, Queensland, look at the tables for Bundaberg Aero or Bundaberg Post Office. Back to the prelude “Manilla’s Yearly Rainfall History”. Monthly and seasonal weather reports for Manilla now extend back more than thirteen years to June 2007. Annual rainfall scatter and rainfall amount were not related. Throughout the month you can expect to see rain or drizzle falling on 5 days of the month. The following charts show yearly weather trends with information on monthly weather averages and extremes. I chose a 21-year sampling window to be wide enough to contain enough points for analysis, without losing time-resolution, or losing too many years at each end of the record from 1883 to 2016. Skewness: 0.268 (slightly positive). In normally distributed data, the Standard Deviation extends 34% each side of the median (and mean). Already, when any extreme climate event is reported, someone will say that climate change has caused it. In them, the peak is well below the mean, and a tail extends to rare high values.). The shoulders, each side of the “peak”, are high; [In later work, I use kurtosis as a measure of extremes. Back to Extremes Part II. [Note added April 2019. For example, in “Rainfall Kurtosis vs. HadCRUT4 revised”.]. the average number of hours the sun is actually out and shining. In this second graph, I have smoothed out the ragged shape of the plotted data, using a 9-point Gaussian smoothing. The new version is less “jumpy” due to better smoothing. First, I replaced each yearly figure by an average of twenty-one years, ten years before and ten years after the date. I defined as “Extreme Values” those either below the 5th percentile or above the 95th percentile of the fitted Normal Distribution. Quite the contrary. It also shows the maximum recorded sustained wind speed for each month. An alternative measure of scatter in data is the Standard Deviation. The figures here have been calmed down. Ratios above 1.0 are Heavy Tails, and ratios below 1.0 are Light Tails. Being platykurtic produces a reduced peak, high shoulders, and thin tails, as was noted. However, by far the most reliable rainfall came since 1992, extending to 2004 and likely up to this year. Those two episodes differ, however: in the 1950’s only the high tail was heavy; in the 1990’s, only the low tail was heavy. The re-drawn graphs of historical records in this post use a 21-year sampling window, as before. Times of very unreliable rainfall came in 1919 (dry), 1949 (normal) and 1958 (wet). The terrain: mostly low plateau with deserts; fertile plain in southeast. QUICK CONNECT : The Land | Queensland Country Life ... Bundaberg Rainfall Reports. The chart below plots the average daily wind speed you can expect for any month. ], Another departure from normality is that the curve is skewed: the tail on the left is shorter than the one on the right. These ‘Tails’ of the Normal Distribution each totalled 5% of the modeled population, making 10% when added together. They were less extreme than usual from the 1900’s through to the 1930’s. Include a date for which you would like to see weather history. We have created our own Swimming Water Temperature Index offering a guide to water temperature and comfort levels for swimming; In October, for the nearest coastal location, the temperature of the sea averages around 23°C, that's 73° Fahrenheit. The first graph helps to make sense of the history of Manilla’s rainfall, using the totals for each year. The pattern is plain. Any values that could be called “extreme” fall very far beyond the Inter-quartile Range. Standard Deviation (measuring spread or scatter): 156 mm. There is a major mode (peaking at 5.1%) on the left, a minor mode (3.9%) on the right, and an antimode (3.7%) between them. Few alive now will remember that Manilla’s rainfall really was much lower in the 1930’s.”, In addition, this new version makes the pattern of growth and sudden collapse obvious. I realised that the Inter-quartile Range is not a good general indicator of spread or, in this case, of reliability of rainfall (as I had assumed). My new title refers to “near-mean” scatter. Also heat index and climate charts. The graph is copied here. I added the two to give a count for Both Tails. We calculate sunshine hours per day using our past forecast data. Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. As before, there were less extremes in the 1900’s, 1910’s, 1920’s and 1930’s. On both occasions the Minimum Value (green) was not extreme at all, being only about 200 mm below the long-term mean. However, it also says nothing about extremes, which will lie far out in the residual 32% “tails” of the data. Dist.” in the legend of the graph). The information presented below gives detailed historical monthly average weather conditions along with exceptional weather occurrences. The shoulders of the smoothed rainfall distribution curve (black) are not simply high; they are higher than the  zone in the middle where the peak would normally be. The first mid-year of a sampling window was 1893 and the last, 2006. Rainfall is thought of as a random process, likely to match a curve of normal distribution. Using the average line drawn across the graph (at 652 mm), you can see that rainfall was below average from 1902 to 1951: almost exactly the first half of the twentieth century.