Even when the vaunted European computer model, the most accurate on average, suggested the storm would veer to the west and strike near Houston, the Hurricane Center didn’t flinch.

Blake said forecasters at the Hurricane Center knew the model “had been struggling this year (and with Laura) and adjusted accordingly.”, The Hurricane Center’s skilled and steady approach proved the doubters wrong. Forecast made Sunday morning for Hurricane Laura's track. To many, the success with Laura affirmed the Hurricane Center’s status as the most trusted source for hurricane forecasts. This helps smooth out the differences and biases between the models as well as the cycle to cycle variability in the model track forecasts.

As good as the Hurricane Center’s track forecast was for Laura, its predictions for its intensity at landfall weren’t as stellar. Editor and writer covering weather and climate.

Not only did it peg the location near the Texas-Louisiana border but it forecast the exact hour it would cross the coastline: 2 a.m. Eastern.

Its precision forecast, made while Laura was still over Haiti, left meteorologists outside the agency in awe. By signing up you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy, Editor and writer covering weather and climate. On Twitter, the Hurricane Center was the target of criticism and second-guessing when it didn’t shift its track forecast to place Houston and areas farther south under a hurricane warning. A study published this month in the journal Weather and Forecasting found a recent “notable improvement trend … that has been statistically significant and accelerating.”.

Though it correctly forecast on Sunday morning the time and location of landfall, it predicted Laura would come ashore with peak winds of 100 mph, 50 mph too low, and had to play catch-up as the storm strengthened at breakneck speed. But where is the hurricane now, and how can you track it? “The folks at the National Hurricane Center are so damn good at their job,” tweeted Dakota Smith, a meteorologist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere. The misfire on the intensity forecast illustrates a well-known gap between its storm track and intensity predictions.
Follow. Better understanding rapid intensification is a major focus of hurricane research, and new prediction techniques are being developed.
When we do make adjustments to the NHC track, we try and do so gradually, and wait to make large adjustments until we’re confident that a bigger shift in the models will hold over several model cycles.”. Bio. “Much work still needs to be done to further improve [rapid intensification] forecasting, and as new and existing tools are developed and refined, there should be an increasing confidence in applying RI forecasts in operations,” the Weather and Forecasting study said. HURRICANE Laura, reaching strengths of a Category 5 storm, has officially made landfall on the Texas-Louisiana border.

NWS All NOAA Top News of the Day... view past news: Last update Wed, 21 Oct 2020 01:25:58 UTC : NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on TS Epsilon; Hurricane Warning: Atlantic High Seas; Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Epsilon; NHC … “One of the things NHC prides itself on is the consistency of our track forecasts,” he said via email. What is hurricane … “This is why to rely on the @NHC_Atlantic tracks, and not those from some faceless, basement-dwelling, self-proclaimed ‘weather authority’ on social media,” tweeted Roger Edwards, a forecaster at the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center.

Since the 1970s, the Hurricane Center’s average track errors have decreased by about two-thirds, but intensity forecasts showed very little improvement through the early 2000s. “Nobody is perfect, but nobody is better, than the deeply experienced crew of world-class hurricane-prediction experts at NHC.”. Blake’s message to them? Hurricane forecasters turn to new tools to predict when storms will rapidly intensify. The most important news stories of the day, curated by Post editors and delivered every morning.

“Just want to give a shout out to @NHC_Atlantic [the National Hurricane Center] and @NHC_Surge for the job they did w/ Laura. Jason Samenow Jason Samenow.

“I saw a lot of comments online about not moving the track westward near Houston when this ECMWF [European model] ensemble plot came out,” tweeted Eric Blake, a forecaster at the Hurricane Center. Mike Brennan, chief of the center’s hurricane specialist unit, explained how it approaches such forecasts. Advertisement.

“We try not to follow short-term trends of any one model from one cycle to the next, but typically rely on a consensus or blend of the best 5 or 6 models as guidance for track forecasting. Despite these gains, the study acknowledged that predicting when storms will rapidly intensify is a major challenge.